CNN’s data analyst Harry Enten issued a warning to President Joe Biden and the Dem Party saying former President Donald Trump is in a historically strong position to get back to the White House.
He said: “Today, Trump’s closest primary competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, has fallen below 20% nationally. No other contender is at or above 10%. This makes the margin between Trump and the rest of the field north of 30 points on average.
“A poll out last week from Marquette University Law School had Biden and Trump tied percentage-wise (with a statistically insignificant few more respondents choosing Trump). The Marquette poll is one of a number of surveys showing Trump either tied or ahead of Biden.
“The ABC News/Washington Post poll has published three surveys of the matchup between the two, and Trump has come out ahead – albeit within the margin of error – every time.
“Other pollsters have shown Biden only narrowly ahead.
“To put that in perspective, Trump never led in a single national poll that met CNN’s standards for publication for the entirety of the 2020 campaign.
“Biden was up by high single digits in the late summer of 2019.
“Biden is up by maybe a point in the average of all 2024 polls today.”
“Trump is not only in a historically strong position for a nonincumbent to win the Republican nomination, but he is in a better position to win the general election than at any point during the 2020 cycle and almost at any point during the 2016 cycle.
“No one in Trump’s current polling position in the modern era has lost an open presidential primary that didn’t feature an incumbent.
“He’s pulling in more than 50% of support in the national primary polls, i.e., more than all his competitors combined.
“Three prior candidates in open primaries were pulling in more than half the vote in primary surveys in the second half of the calendar year before the election: Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush in 2000 and Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016.
“Gore remains the only nonincumbent to win every single presidential nominating contest, while Bush and Clinton never lost their national polling advantage in their primaries.
“The fact that the polling between Biden and Trump is so close shouldn’t be much of a surprise.
“Elections are a choice between two candidates.
“Trump isn’t popular, but neither is Biden.
“One giant warning sign for Democrats was a late June Quinnipiac University poll from Pennsylvania, a pivotal state for the past few election cycles where Trump rallied base supporters in Erie on Saturday. The state barely voted for Trump in 2016 and for Biden in 2020.
“Trump was up on Biden by 1 point in the Quinnipiac poll – a result within the margin of error, but nevertheless a remarkable achievement for the former president.
“Why?
“It was only the second Pennsylvania poll that met CNN standards for publication since 2015 that had Trump ahead of either Biden (for 2020 and 2024) or Clinton (for 2016),” he said.
